Even with generating anxious and unpleasant feelings for all parties involved, lateness is an occurrence that has plagued the best of us time and time again. So why does it happen and what can we do about it? In 1979, renowned economist Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky proposed the Planning Fallacy. It states that people are lousy at figuring out how much time they will take to complete something because they overestimate their abilities and underestimate the degree to which they are estimating, since they think they can do more than they actually can.
Say for instance, you were supposed to meet a friend at 2pm downtown. Since it only takes 40 minutes to get there, you calculate a 1:20pm departure to arrive in the nick of time, right? Well, let’s examine that logic a bit closer. Here are some of the assumptions you may have made in your decision: a) you will get dressed in time and out the door by said time, b) the trains are running smoothly and you make your transfer, c) there will be no amazing subway entertainers who distract you resulting in missing your stop and d) you will be able to walk the 3 blocks with no foot traffic from the congested streets, and avoid the myriad of other random popups.
Here are some strategies to overcome the planning fallacy:
1. Add 50% Additional Time. The trick is to remain cognizant of the potential to be late while planning for the worst-case scenario; then, the probability of being late immediately begins to dwindle. So, go ahead and assume that you may not be able to find that coveted shirt that you had been wanting to wear or that the trains are going to be slow. Just by adding 50% extra time to your original estimate; in this case - aiming to leave at 1:00pm instead of 1:20pm will significantly improve your punctuality.
The same challenges arise with intellectual tasks as people are not good at estimating how long it will take to get something done because of an optimism bias. You may think, of course, I can complete the book by the end of the year; after all, I am smart and capable and will get it done. Unfortunately, people are often really poor judges of their abilities. A good way to address this is to gather more information, which in turn allows for better planning. Getting an outside perspective to see how long it will actually take can be helpful. That may include talking to a published author so you can learn about all of the smaller steps in the book writing process that you may not know of or you may have overlooked.
When Danielle Kahneman was planning on collaborating with other professors to write a textbook on morals for his university, he thought it would have been completed in about two years; but the Dean, who had seen so many professors in his position before, said it would be more like 3-5 years. In his experience, about 40% of professors who started a massive collaborative project similar to this one did not finish. Indeed, the Dean was right as it ended up taking them much longer to complete because they based their timeline on the best-case scenario and did not factor in the general vicissitudes of life including divorce, death, and bureaucratic obstacles that slowed the work of the team.
2. Add a buffer for the unknown. We absolutely cannot plan for every scenario, but a good way to reduce stress is to create an additional allowance for unexpected events that can potentially put a wrinkle in our schedules.
3. Use the 10/90 Rule. Another way to be a more effective planner would be to invoke what Brian Tracy dubbed the 10/90 Rule for personal effectiveness. He notes that when you spend 10% of your time planning and organizing your work before you begin, you will save 90% of the time in getting the job done once you get started. Lots of good things happen when you think on paper.
These three strategies - a) adding 50% additional time, b) creating space for the unknown, c) and utilizing the 10/90 rule can help in combating the planning fallacy.
Q: What are your favorite hacks to achieve punctuality in your work?
Quote of the day: "Amateurs talk about strategy, professionals talk about logistics." -General Omar Bradley
Anticipate and Avoid the Planning Fallacy